President Sarkozy’s visit to the Gulf ended with the announcement that France will set up a new base in the UAE (a couple of other agreements were signed, including cooperation for a water plant and a civilian nuclear cooperation program).
This is a breaking news.
First, it makes France become the only other foreign country with the US to have a permanent military facility in the Gulf region. And this happens as France has not extended its military bases network abroad recently - the trend is rather to downsize it, due to budget considerations. In Abu Dhabi, four to five hundreds French soldiers will be deployed on a long run.
Second, France did its best to avoid ambiguity. It claimed that this base is not aimed at Iran. And it claimed that the Emirates asked for it –France could’nt frankly say anything else.
This decision may be a major strategic mistake.
The French national interests are in a stable Middle-East. Deploying more troops can only bring more tensions. And the image of France in the region could be serioulsy damaged by such a decision. The recent trend shows that the ‘autonomists’ (ranking first among them are the islamists) are pledging for less Western influence in the region
What if, latter, this military presence is perceived as an occupation ? How would the French soldiers react if they get attacked ? A retreat would be seen as a defeat. A retaliation would trigger a dangerous cycle.
There are certainly many possible solutions to face terrorism. Deploying more Western troops on a muslim soil can definitely not be one of them.
