At least two good reasons for a succesfull demo of Sadr supporters on Wednesday

Iraqi cleric Moqtada as-Sadr called last week for a mass demonstration this Wednesday, April 9th, to commemorate the fifth anniversary of the fall of Baghdad. Originaly planned in Najaf, this demo was latter relocated in Baghdad in order to ensure a bigger success. Very smartly, Sadr invited all the Iraqis opposing the US-led occupation, whatever their confession, to join the march.

Since, at least two decisions taken by Sadr’s main opponents (namely the US and the Iraqi governement) should bring even more people to the streets. Both show the US unability to translate a temporary improvement on the field to a more sustainable success.

Moqtada as-Sadr. Photo courtesy AP.

The first one is the announcement made by the US State Department to renew for a year the contract of the private security company Blackwater for the protection of the US embassy personals in and around Baghdad.

Originaly, the Iraqi governement had banned Blackwater after the incident in which the company’s guards shot dead 17 Iraqi civilians in September 2007. After pressures from the US embassy, which could not afford to suspend all the moves of its staff waiting for another security company to take over the job, Baghdad eventually accepted to let it work. But an unofficial understanding was concluded, that Blackwater would not be candidate for the renewal of its contract

We must remind that foreign security companies at currently not subject to Iraq law, but at the same time are not governed by US military tribunals, allowing them to operate without regard to any repercussions. Their bad doings jeopardize the US image in Iraq, and therefore the success of their ‘mission’.

The US governement says that the FBI investigation is still under way, and that it sees no reason for a sanction as long as the results are not delivered.

How much money do the US taxpayers spend for political advisers in Iraq ? Obviously, they must be stupid -or not listened to –to let the State Departement take decisions like this one, humiliating the Iraqi sovereignty.

The other good reason to ensure the march’s success is Maliki’s call to disband Sadr’s militia, Jaish al-Mahdi. The Iraqi Prime minister threathened to ban the Sadr movement from elections of its armed body is not disbanded.

This decision answers to the question : how to push a couple of millions of people into illegality, by depriving them of political representation?

The fact is that both the Iraqi president and the Prime minister run militias. From the Badr Brigade to the Kurdish peshmergas, and now the sunni Sahwa (Sons of Iraq), every single Iraqi community has its militias. Why to target especially Jaish al-Mahdi ? Because it aims at the departure of the foreign troops? This is definitely not a fair policy.

If the Iraqi Supreme Electoral Commission issues a new regulation banning parties that operate militias from fielding candidates in the provincial balloting, due this fall, then it would be likely to ban all the major parties from the polls.

If I was Sadr, I would answer easely : ‘disband my guys ? Sure ! But you first…’