Should French troops stay in Afghanistan?

Nicolas Sarkozy should announce in the coming days in Bucharest an increase by 1,000 troops of the French military force in Afghanistan.

The idea is bad. The timing is bad.

The war in Afghanistan can no longer be won considering the basis on which it started. Every single aspect of it was communautarized. And the hunt for Al-Qaeda quickly became a hunt for Pashtuns. Targetting a community, as we have seen in Iraq, can only damage the relation between the army and the population. To some extend, the Taliban movement has legitimacy from the people. Rather than making the confusion between Talibans and Al-Qaeda, one should rather adress the reasons for this popular support.

Among those who doubt of the efficiency of the military operations, many US observers and officials (read my previous post on Afghanistan) as well as the Afghan president Hamid Karzai himslef (CBS’ 60 Minutes produced a great story on the subject).

Increasing the military presence in the country is not only dangerous for the troops. It is also costly, at a time the French governement requires a budget diet. And it is a show of support to a Bush administration that even a large majority of the American public no longer supports. It weakens also the European position, while countries like Germany are facing pressures to increase their troop level.

Pledging that ‘the solution is not only military’ is a fake excuse.

Not only cannot the solution be military. But it must be merely Afghan as well. And as free as possible of foreign influence.

French military in the Emirates. A mistake ?

President Sarkozy’s visit to the Gulf ended with the announcement that France will set up a new base in the UAE (a couple of other agreements were signed, including cooperation for a water plant and a civilian nuclear cooperation program).

This is a breaking news.

First, it makes France become the only other foreign country with the US to have a permanent military facility in the Gulf region. And this happens as France has not extended its military bases network abroad recently – the trend is rather to downsize it, due to budget considerations. In Abu Dhabi, four to five hundreds French soldiers will be deployed on a long run.
Second, France did its best to avoid ambiguity. It claimed that this base is not aimed at Iran. And it claimed that the Emirates asked for it –France could’nt frankly say anything else.

This decision may be a major strategic mistake.

The French national interests are in a stable Middle-East. Deploying more troops can only bring more tensions. And the image of France in the region could be serioulsy damaged by such a decision. The recent trend shows that the ‘autonomists’ (ranking first among them are the islamists) are pledging for less Western influence in the region

What if, latter, this military presence is perceived as an occupation ? How would the French soldiers react if they get attacked ? A retreat would be seen as a defeat. A retaliation would trigger a dangerous cycle.

There are certainly many possible solutions to face terrorism. Deploying more Western troops on a muslim soil can definitely not be one of them.